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Prediction for CME (2024-02-28T09:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-02-28T09:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/29393/-1
CME Note: A relatively faint partial halo CME in the E associated with a faint EUV wave in AIA 193. Its clear source is a C5.1 class flare peaking at 2024-02-28T09:09Z centered (~S15E31)(there is no associated active region). The CME is also associated with a type II radio burst, faint dimming and tightly woven bright but small-area post-eruptive arcades. The CME overlaps with one or two more CMEs to the north of it. A distinct arrival is seen at L1 at 2024-03-03T08:47Z. The shock is not clearly observed (there is no abrupt increase in plasma data) and STA impact happens first and the sheath and its rotation are clearly seen and with a slight lag at L1, so the most likely candidates for this arrival are CME 2024-02-28T17:48Z and 2024-02-28T23:12:00-CME-001.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-03-02T11:42Z
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-02-28 13:06
 - Time at C2: 2024-02-28 09:24
 - Radial speed: 867.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 28 deg
 - Eruption location: S16E31
 Inferences:
   - Associated flare: C5.1 (S18E31). Peak at 2024-02-28 08:56
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 534.90 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2024-03-02 11:42 (i.e. predicted transit time: 74.32 hours)
Lead Time: 61.75 hour(s)
Difference: 21.08 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2024-02-29T19:02Z
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